Numerology: Scoot-er, Miller, Faster, Stronger
In a draft where the top pick is already decided, supposedly the intrigue starts at #2. But should it?
Is a draft cycle where the top pick has been ordained since the preseason one that’s more or less interesting than a less-settled situation? It’s mostly up to the beholder, given there are so many wrinkles to the NBA draft.
For the drafts with “can’t miss” prospects in recent memory, including but not limited to Victor Wembanyama, Zion Williamson, and Anthony Davis, a common refrain starts to emerge that “the draft starts at #_” instead of the first pick.
This is one of those years. Due to his size, skill, and upside, there’s no reasonable argument for a team to pick #1 overall and not select Wemby. Sure, he has some injury history. Yes, it’s harder for big men to impact the modern game. Despite any qualms or quibbles, in many ways, the draft does start once Wembanyama squeezes his head into his draft cap.
Where the draft really “begins”, up until the past month, wasn’t much of a debate. Scoot Henderson, who’s played for the G-League Ignite for the past two years, was considered the consensus 2nd-best prospect in the 2023 draft class.
Even as players like Amen Thompson, Ausar Thompson, Cam Whitmore, or Nick Smith Jr. built preseason buzz, it felt finalized that Henderson would be the next pick after Wembanyama.
Over the course of the season, however, a new name has emerged: Brandon Miller. After a summer tour that inspired hushed, awed whispers from scouts, Miller burst into the national scene of college basketball, becoming the alpha dog for the Crimson Tide during their best year in the NCAA.
Miller has more than earned the acclaim and hype that he has as a draft prospect. He has a number of great-to-elite skills on offense, has shored up his weaknesses midseason, and will make a team very happy.
However, recent chatter has indicated teams may be willing to take Miller over Henderson if they end up at #2, an upset situation that few saw coming before this year.
If that happens, whatever team selects Miller runs the risk of falling into an age-old draft myth and hamstringing their future due to a miscalculation about players and their potential.
Scoot vs. Brandon:
Scoot Henderson, PG, G-League Ignite, 6’2”
Before we dig into the why, let’s get the who out of the way. As mentioned above, Scoot Henderson spent what would’ve been his senior year of high school and freshman year in college with the G-League Ignite, the equivalent of a semi-successful disruptor tech startup.
Henderson controlled Ignite’s offense all season, dominating ball screens and getting to his desired spots with ease. He averaged 16.5 points, 5.4 rebounds, 6.5 assists, and 1.1 steals, on shooting splits of 43/28/76.
His main appeal as a prospect is his prototypical physical profile combined with his advanced reading of offense with the ball in his hands. He brings athleticism in the same conversation as Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook, if only a slight step below, alongside a nuanced reading of when to attack, change speeds, and get teammates involved. When he takes it himself, jaws tend to drop and defenses get humbled:
The main criticism of Scoot this year compared to last was that he didn’t improve statistically with the Ignite and that his shot is still a bit suspect. Those concerns are mostly shared by chronic box-score barons, as Henderson has a reliable pull-up jumper that he utilized throughout the season while orchestrating offense out of the pick’n’roll:
Brandon Miller, SF/PF, Alabama Crimson Tide, 6’9”
In contrast, Brandon Miller’s appeal is predicated on his ability to shoot the basketball. Miller came into Tuscaloosa with a five-star pedigree but wasn’t considered highly likely to be a one-and-done prospect. Even after his summer buzz, the lottery was a pipe dream.
All Miller did in response in his single season at Alabama was lead the team in points, rebounds, and three-point percentage, spearheading a pro-style Nate Oats offense that helped the Tide be the best teams in the country for most of the year.
Most of Miller’s offense comes from his deadeye jumper, which has a high release point and can be fired from multiple angles. He can pull-up, hit shots off of the catch, and showed the propensity to rain shots in from all spots on the floor:
Miller even expanded on the biggest weakness in his game by improving his ability to create jumpers and rim attempts for himself in the half-court as the conference season went on, something he was pretty poor at before the season started:
All in all, both prospects project to be offensive stars at different positions. While Scoot is 6’2”, Miller stands at 6’9”, which makes him the ideal size for a lead scoring forward in the NBA.
Whether he can actually become that, however, is the problem with mocking him as the #2 pick in the draft, given he isn’t quite as good of a prospect as Scoot Henderson. This sort of potential mistake is one of the most common errors in judgment that NBA teams make with high draft picks.
3 >2 in more ways than 1:
To frame our conversation on picks, let’s take a look at the past 20 years of second-overall picks. As you read, take note of how many All-Star players were selected in this spot:
Chet Holmgren, Jalen Green, James Wiseman, Ja Morant, Marvin Bagley III, Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, D’Angelo Russell, Jabari Parker, Victor Oladipo, Michael Kidd-Gilchrest, Derrick Williams, Evan Turner, Hasheem Thabeet, Michael Beasley, Kevin Durant, LaMarcus Aldridge, Marvin Williams, Emeka Okafor, and Darko Milicic.
It’s hard to argue the 2nd pick is bad when MVP Kevin Durant, All-NBA players Ja Morant and LaMarcus Aldridge, and All-Stars like Brandon Ingram, D’Angelo Russell, and Victor Oladipo all were chosen in that slot, but outside of these six stars, the list is bleak or unproven.
Chet Holmgren, Lonzo Ball, Jabari Parker, Oladipo himself, and Hasheem Thabeet have all struggled with injury issues. Jalen Green, James Wiseman, and Marvin Bagley III are still relatively young, but they’re running out of time to look like the type of star player a team expects when drafting at #2.
Michael Beasley flamed out of the league. Michael Kidd-Gilchrest, Darko Milicic, Derrick Williams, and Evan Turner were all miscast as potential stars. Marvin Williams and Emeka Okafor were fine enough, but nowhere close to stars.
Teams that are picking second often need a star to throw on a cape and save their franchise, but the over-scrutinization of players and the desperation many teams face cloud their judgment and make them overthink things.
Already, we’ve seen that sort of discourse with Scoot Henderson and Brandon Miller. Scoot, on the one hand, looks like a prototypical point guard prospect, minus some shooting ruffles. Miller, for all of his in-season improvements and pristine shooting touch, is a much riskier choice, even as he fits into the current archetype-du-jour in the NBA.
Some have pointed to Scoot’s apparent stagnation, combined with Brandon Miller’s rise, as a reason that he shouldn’t go 2nd overall. That ignores the high impact he’s had in the G-League as 19-year-old and last year as an 18-year-old while ignoring that Brandon Miller is already 20, giving him a slight but not inconsequential physical advantage over other freshman.
If Miller goes above Scoot in the draft, it’s expected that a team would happily snatch him up with the third pick, which has a connected history to the 2nd pick. These two picks are intertwined, not just due to being adjacent in positioning, but due to the auspicious nature of how often players drafted third outshine those who are drafted second.
The most famous example comes from Michael Jordan, who the Portland Trail Blazers passed over in favor of Sam Bowie. We all know how that went, but there are a few more recent examples of 3 > 2 that illuminate a notable theme in drafting.
Marvin Bagley III over Luka Doncic in 2018 (although the Hawks deserve an “L” here for trading Doncic for Trae Young), Brandon Ingram over Jayson Tatum in 2017, D’Angelo Russell over Jaylen Brown in 2016, Jabari Parker over Joel Embiid in 2015, Michael Kidd-Gilchrest over Bradley Beal in 2012, Hasheem Thabeet over James Harden in 2009, Marvin Williams over Deron Williams in 2005, Darko Milicic over Carmelo Anthony in 2003… I could go on.
This isn’t just an example where hindsight is 20/20: Doncic was a consensus better prospect than Bagley III, Embiid was until his foot injury, and Deron Williams was compared to Marvin. Instead of taking the best player available, teams tried to fit themselves into a conceptual box, which got them stuck.
I’m not cherry-picking drafts intentionally where the 3rd overall pick stomped on the 2nd. While teams at the top get their choice of the best draft prospect, the 2nd overall slot is often the epicenter of divisive draft conversations, overthinking, and drafting for “fit” more than raw ability.
There isn’t any magic surrounding the 3rd overall pick. There are still a handful of busts at this slot, just like every spot. But given the instability at 2nd and the better outcomes at 3rd, the mystique surrounding the draft selection has grown and isn’t completely unfounded as a real mystical trend that has a grounding in simple reasoning.
Best Player Available versus “Fit”:
That’s the conversation that’s going on with Brandon Miller over Scoot Henderson right now: while it’s hard to make the case that Miller is an objectively better pro prospect than Henderson, teams are seemingly more inclined to take a slightly lesser player in Miller due to him playing a more premium position.
For any team that is drafting at the top of the draft, heed this warning: going for fit over talent hardly ever bears the same fruit as the inverse. Fit is both one of the most important aspects of the NBA but also one of the least commonly understood.
Yes, prospects need a good development plan, team structure, and support network to succeed to their fullest potential at the NBA level. At the same time, there are sometimes players so talented in a draft class that they can either adjust their games to complement their respective teams or are so good that the team itself should fit its roster around them.
Scoot Henderson, as an average-sized point guard prospect, is technically tougher to fit seamlessly into a current team structure, even though he is a superior prospect. Brandon Miller, on the other hand, is a mobile shooting forward with size, albeit with some flaws to his game. Any team could theoretically fit him into their rotation.
What’s important, however, is that any team that’s drafting in the lottery has an inherently flawed team construction. Sure, sometimes injuries can send good teams down into the depths, but more often than not, adding a player who’s a better fit into a flawed system than another is a recipe for mediocrity.
Instead, the goal for any team drafting at the top of the lottery shouldn’t be finding a player who “fits”. It should be taking the best player possible and building around them so that they can become the best version of themselves and lead the team to the promised land.
A team choosing Brandon Miller over Scoot Henderson just because of fit would be choosing an inferior option due to semantics. That would be a mistake that could set a team back for years and gift the team drafting 3rd an unexpected star prospect.
Really good stuff!